SARO SAROYAN

After the Kazan meeting the author of these lines has characterised the given trunk-call stage on settlement of the Karabakh conflict not as “failure”, and as “success”. At the heart of such characteristic expectation or desire of laid at all that with a failure in Kazan signings of the offers laying on a negotiating table, all process of settlement of the conflict will be ruined also. Alternative to negotiating process with uncertain result – war, and, hence, prospect of destruction of the future region that is unacceptable in every respect.
Those prospects which should open in front of Armenia after official Baku, whose expectations from intermediary efforts of the president of the Russian Federation Dmitry Medvedev were not justified by success of a steel, once again will play the “western” reorientation and also because the next years the political field of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia will be loaded by selective processes. The aggravation which was expected in relations with Moscow, impossibility of crisis in negotiating process on settlement of the Karabakh conflict in elections and the introduction of Aliev a mode in the political auction with the West and Turkey, especially, in a question of energy carriers, could become the important stimulus for involvement of some programs, vital for Арцаха and Armenia.
On October, 23rd the president of Nagorno-Karabakh republic Bako Sahakyan, accompanied by prime minister Ara Arutyunyan and the minister of power and natural resources of Armenia of Armen Movsisjana, has visited Karvacharsky area and has familiarised with works spent there. The program of strategic value starting one of these days – building of highway Zod-Karvachar was the basic nail of a trip.
It, really, one of unique strategic programs: the ruling elite of Armenia could not make the independent political decision on its realisation, without reception of preliminary guarantees of that will manage to beat off gamble of Azerbaijan and to resist to pressure of the international community. The matter is that if the road Goris-Lachin-Stepanakert is accepted by the parties of negotiating process and intermediaries as the important component of settlement of the conflict (“corridor” which is connected Нагорный Карабах and Republic Armenia), in the same process by road Zod-Karvachar-Martakert – in general the “nonnative” child and, naturally, is not perceived by the international community.
Building of Karvachars road, thus, can testify to an involvement of external forces into this business. Forces, whose guarantee has pushed the authorities of Armenia to involve the second road program connecting Arcakh with Republic Armenia. And the arguments of prime minister НКР resulted as motivation of realisation of the similar program, speak about unexpectedness of start of building both for authorities NKR, and for authorities RA. To begin in October building of road which will pass on high-mountainous territories, it is not so convincing, if, it is final political interest it is not put above any sort of inconveniences. And from this point of view there is a problem to understand, what interests have pushed to realisation of this program.
After a failure of the Kazan meeting informed circles in administration of the president of Russia have informed, that next time the similar meeting can take place only when the preliminary arrangement on signing of any agreement will be reached. It means, that for achievement of the agreement and the organisation of a new tripartite meeting any intermediate agreements should be reached, henceforth importance therefore will be given to meetings in a bilateral format (between presidents of Russia and Azerbaijan or Russia and Armenia). However it, at the same time, testified that the Kazan failure has been apprehended by the Russian authorities as a painful and large foreign policy miss, responsibility for which will lay down on that party which most of all opposed at negotiations in a bilateral format.
Revealing of the responsible party has not kept itself waiting. After Aliev and Medvedev’s which have taken place on August, 9th in Sochi the ineffectual meeting, in the Russian-Azerbaijan relations the first serious complexities were outlined. Aliev dissatisfied with negotiations, first, boycotted the anniversary summit of the CIS countries which have taken place in the beginning of September in Dushanbe, and on October, 18th, at session of heads of the governments of the CIS countries has refused to sign the contract on formation of a zone of free trade of the CIS. Unlike the Russian-Azerbaijan relations which are becoming complicated day by day, the state visit of the president of Armenia to Moscow has shown on October, 23-25rd all depth and volume of the Armenian-Russian relations.
These tendencies which were outlined on the Russian direction, have created possibility for new positive processes in relations Azerbaijan-Turkey. However, leaning against the Turkish-Azerbaijan trunk-call experience round the gas agreement, it is possible to tell, that next replay on a Turkish field it was gave to Baku not so easily. Only on October, 25th, after the months which have lasted some negotiations round a package of gas agreements, it was possible to reach result. Within the limits of Turkish visit of the president of Azerbaijan, Azerbaijan-Turkish gas agreements this very day have been entered into.
The specified agreements concern not only export of the Azerbaijan gas to Turkey, but also gas transit to Europe through Turkish territory. Thus, becoming the participant of realisation of the communication program bypassing Russia, Azerbaijan has made one more step on aggravation of the outlined complication in relations with Russia. And as the question of signing of agreements in the past was repeatedly used Baku as means for reception of dividends in the Karabakh process now it is possible to speak about end of the next stage (Shah-deniz) of gas games of official Baku and a failure of its policy on reception of dividends.
The processes fixed after the Kazan meeting, testify that Ilham Aliev, having put forward in Kazan 10 preconditions and having ruined agreement acceptance, promoted that in the Russian-Azerbaijan negotiations, in business of promotion of interests one of key problems – «the Karabakh question» – has been replaced by the tool which special-purpose designation – retaliatory function. Similar processes in the Russian-Azerbaijan relations it was possible to wait only in case of a failure of the Kazan stage.
Thus, on closer examination visits at high level – Serj Sargsyan – to Russia, and – to Turkey, it is necessary to fix Ilhama Aliev not only signing of the Turkish-Azerbaijan gas agreements, but also program involvement on road Zod-Karvachar building. At first sight, it, really, two non-comparable strategic programs: definitively bound future Karvacharsky and, hence, Lachinsky areas with the Armenian world is compared to billions petrodollars which will receive Baku. There will be people for whom the first bowl of scales will move, for others the-second. However that all it has occurred without a permission and display of will of the political authorities of Armenia is remarkable here. Hoping only on successful coincidence of circumstances, far you will not leave.